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In a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, environmental challenges and rapid technological change, the resilience of global network infrastructure has never been more critical. This white paper outlines the urgent need to construct networks that connect today's populations while safeguarding against future risks.
Submarine cables and terrestrial networks are more vulnerable to disruption than ever before; compounded by persistent regulatory and supply chain challenges. The path forward lies in prioritising investments in network resilience. This entails investing in diversified routes, fostering collaboration, and developing the capacity to continuously adapt to an ever-changing operational landscape. Network operators must shift their focus from short-term gains to long-term stability, ensuring infrastructure sustains critical services even under the most unpredictable circumstances.
RETN's distinctive network-first strategy is not only ethically sound but inherently logical for all network operators seeking sustained commercial success.
This white paper issues a call to action for the industry: prioritise network resilience, foster innovation, and ensure the networks we build today can meet tomorrow's demands.
Network Vulnerability: The Scale of Geopolitical Risks and Broader Threats
Geopolitical turbulence is placing strain on communications infrastructure, as evidenced by recent disruptions in regions like the Red Sea and the Strait of Malacca caused by severed submarine cables. Reports suggest the Red Sea disruption affected 25% of data traffic between Europe and Asia, though this figure appears significantly underestimated.
Based on our network observations at the time and customer feedback—including from several major consumer ISPs in Southeast Asia—a more plausible figure is 60–70%, whether due to network congestion or extended data transit times.
Beyond the cable cuts, design flaws and a scarcity of new cables exacerbated the problem. Connectivity between Asia, Africa and Europe currently relies heavily on two primary submarine cable systems: Asia-Africa-Europe 1 (AAE-1) and Southeast Asia-Middle East-West Africa 5 (SMW-5). Both lines, commissioned in 2017, traverse Egypt—a critical terrestrial transit point for submarine cables crossing the Red Sea into the Mediterranean.
Regrettably, this routing creates a single point of failure; any disruption within Egyptian territory would inflict substantial damage upon global communications networks.
Despite repeated post-pandemic pledges to plan new submarine cables, the sole new cable spanning Western Europe and Southeast Asia (SEA-ME-WE 6)—originally slated for deployment next year—now faces delays beyond 2025 due to ongoing Red Sea instability, further exacerbating network vulnerability.
Barriers to Eliminating Single Points of Failure
What, then, is impeding new cable construction? As geopolitical tensions persist, supply chain disruptions are affecting the availability and deployment of telecommunications equipment.
Firstly, only a handful of global companies possess the capability to manufacture the required high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables and converters, resulting in limited production capacity and backlogged orders. Specialised vessels required for cable-laying are also in short supply, making cost-effective short-term charters difficult. Crucially, vessels used for laying submarine cables also undertake maintenance of existing cables; the current high incidence of cable faults further delays the urgently needed new infrastructure.
Secondly, during the pandemic, order cancellations and economic uncertainty severely disrupted semiconductor production. These critical components – chips – process data transmitted via submarine cables. The technologies used to manufacture and maintain submarine cables, including signal processing and data transmission, are equally reliant on semiconductors.
In the wake of COVID-19, we continue to grapple with the lingering effects of a global chip shortage, whose geopolitical consequences are intensifying. For instance, Chinese officials have mandated that major domestic telecommunications operators phase out foreign semiconductor products from their networks by 2027. New submarine cable projects have been delayed due to supply chain challenges.
Climate change presents another critical issue, with rising sea levels eroding coastal infrastructure. In South America, beach erosion has become so severe that previously submerged submarine cables are now exposed, significantly increasing the risk of network outages. However, these climate risks largely constitute long-term threats. The immediate priority is to explore how to ensure digital connectivity remains intact during physical disruptions.